Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Adam ThielenReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Lions vs. Panthers
Right now, Adam Thielen’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-132/+102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (+102) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Lions defense this year: 4th-most in football.
- Adam Thielen has put up substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Lions pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 2.27 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the league.
- The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
