Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to notch 8.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown has notched quite a few more air yards this season (106.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).

Cons

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-least in football.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 7.56 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
82
Receiving Yards