NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 280.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 280.5 (-105) after it opened @ 271.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.5 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
- Tom Brady has been among the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 268.0 yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a giant 10-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
- The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
302
Passing Yards
302
Passing Yards
