Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 280.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 280.5 (-105) after it opened @ 271.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.5 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Tom Brady has been among the top passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 268.0 yards per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.

Cons

The Buccaneers are a giant 10-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
302
Passing Yards