Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Teddy BridgewaterPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jets vs. Dolphins
Right now, Teddy Bridgewater’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 246.5 (-110) after it opened @ 245.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in football versus the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (73.6%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 8.70 yards-per-target: the most in football.
- The New York Jets defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.87 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the NFL.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense as the 2nd-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.77 seconds per play.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
