Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Bears
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (+108/-139).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (+108) after it opened @ 238.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 11.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- With a terrific total of 248.0 adjusted passing yards per game (76th percentile), Sam Howell places as one of the best passers in the NFL this year.
- This year, the weak Bears defense has been gouged for the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a colossal 9.11 yards.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast Sam Howell to throw 33.0 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
241
Passing Yards
241
Passing Yards
