Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Russell Wilson from EV Insight

Russell WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 227.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in football.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Cons

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
Russell Wilson’s passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.3% to 59.0%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in football versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (68.5%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
257
Passing Yards