Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 286.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 286.5 (-115) after it opened @ 286.5 (-114).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 65.5% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
- In this week’s game, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by the projections to have the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 42.3.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (80.3% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 251.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year marks a a noteable decrease in his throwing skills over last year’s 325.0 figure.
- Patrick Mahomes’s 62.6% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a a remarkable drop-off in his passing precision over last year’s 67.7% figure.
- Patrick Mahomes’s passing efficiency has declined this season, accumulating just 6.97 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 mark last season.
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
329
Passing Yards
329
Passing Yards
