Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 285.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 285.5 (-110) after it opened @ 273.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Patrick Mahomes has passed for quite a few more yards per game (307.0) this season than he did last season (255.0).
- Patrick Mahomes has been among the most accurate passers in the league this year with a terrific 67.0% Completion%, ranking in the 78th percentile.
- Patrick Mahomes has been among the best per-play QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 8.41 yards-per-target while grading out in the 100th percentile.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 5th-most yards in football (273.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Cons
- The Chiefs are an enormous 7-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
296
Passing Yards
296
Passing Yards
