Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Rams vs. Cowboys
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 256.5 (-133) after it opened @ 259.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Rams are a 5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-least yards in football (just 191.0 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, giving up 5.78 yards-per-target: the least in the NFL.
- The Dallas Cowboys safeties project as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards
288
Passing Yards
