Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Marcus Mariota from EV Insight

Marcus MariotaPassing Yards

Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 197.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 197.5 (-110) after it opened @ 204.5 (-115).

Pros

The Falcons are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Marcus Mariota has passed for quite a few more yards per game (197.0) this year than he did last year (1.0).
Marcus Mariota has been among the most effective quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an impressive 7.96 yards-per-target while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 33.2 passes this week, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
Marcus Mariota has been among the worst precision passers in the NFL this year with a 57.2% Completion%, grading out in the 9th percentile.
Opposing teams have passed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 210.0 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
216
Passing Yards