Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Steelers vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projections to call 67.1 total plays in this game: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.
- Lamar Jackson’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 74.8%.
- Lamar Jackson has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 7.60 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 82nd percentile.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.55 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 6th-most in football.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
- The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 48.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 29.7 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league against the Steelers defense this year (63.0% Adjusted Completion%).
- When it comes to linebackers pass-rushing, Pittsburgh’s group of LBs has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
187
Passing Yards
187
Passing Yards
