Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 223.5 yards (-109/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 223.5 (-125) after it opened @ 226.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.5% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Lamar Jackson’s passing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 67.6%.
Lamar Jackson has been among the most efficient passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 7.94 yards-per-target while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Cons

The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 33.0 passes in this contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in football against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year (65.2%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
258
Passing Yards