Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Chiefs
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 299.5 yards (+104/-136).
The public has bet the OVER up to 299.5 (+104) after it opened @ 290.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 133.2 total plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Kirk Cousins has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (302.0) this year than he did last year (264.0).
Cons
- The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 8th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 216.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
- This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a meager 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the 8th-best group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
320
Passing Yards
320
Passing Yards
