Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 299.5 yards (+104/-136).

The public has bet the OVER up to 299.5 (+104) after it opened @ 290.5 (-114).

Pros

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their chances: the greatest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 133.2 total plays run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Kirk Cousins has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (302.0) this year than he did last year (264.0).

Cons

The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 8th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 216.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a meager 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.
The Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the 8th-best group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
320
Passing Yards