Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Steelers
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-130) after it opened @ 207.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the NFL.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the least yards in the NFL (just 167.0 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
186
Passing Yards
186
Passing Yards
