Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Browns vs. Chargers
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 270.5 (-125) after it opened @ 277.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 38.0 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Justin Herbert has been among the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 299.0 yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have used play action on 28.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
249
Passing Yards
249
Passing Yards
