Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Jaguars
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 264.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 264.5 (-110) after it opened @ 262.5 (-110).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
- The Bills offensive line grades out as the best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Josh Allen has been among the top passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 272.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
- Josh Allen’s 75.6% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a an impressive improvement in his passing accuracy over last season’s 64.2% rate.
- This year, the weak Jaguars defense has been torched for a colossal 252.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 8th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Bills to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Jaguars cornerbacks project as the best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
