Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Steelers
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 71.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 37.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 14-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards
256
Passing Yards
