Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jimmy Garoppolo from EV Insight

Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards

Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 217.5 (-110) after it opened @ 212.5 (-115).

Pros

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 8.00 yards-per-target while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-highest level in the league against the Carolina Panthers defense this year (72.7%).
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 31.7 passes this week, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
Jimmy Garoppolo’s throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 62.1%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards