WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Lions vs. Panthers
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 235.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
- The Lions offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Jared Goff’s 68.4% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a a remarkable improvement in his throwing accuracy over last year’s 65.1% mark.
- Jared Goff has been among the best per-play passers in football this year, averaging an excellent 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 79th percentile.
Cons
- The Lions are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Lions to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 5th-fewest yards in the league (just 188.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Panthers defense this year.
- Since the start of last season, the stout Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing teams: a meager 4.0 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
260
Passing Yards
260
Passing Yards
