Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Browns vs. Chargers
Right now, Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards prop is set at 210.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 210.5 (-101) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Jacoby Brissett has passed for significantly more yards per game (219.0) this year than he did last year (125.0).
- Jacoby Brissett’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% rising from 60.2% to 66.1%.
- Jacoby Brissett’s throwing efficiency has gotten better this season, notching 6.91 yards-per-target compared to a mere 5.54 mark last season.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year (74.8%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense as the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.32 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 31.3 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 10th-best collection of LBs in the league this year when it comes to pass rush.
Projection
THE BLITZ
194
Passing Yards
194
Passing Yards
