Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Saints vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 239.5 (-110) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 37.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 204.0 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the NFL against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (63.3%).
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, yielding 6.74 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
- The New Orleans Saints safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
300
Passing Yards
300
Passing Yards
