Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 239.5 (-110) after it opened @ 233.5 (-115).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 37.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 8th-most of all QBs.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 204.0 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the NFL against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (63.3%).
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, yielding 6.74 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
The New Orleans Saints safeties project as the 4th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
300
Passing Yards