Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 211.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 211.5 (-113) after it opened @ 213.5 (-114).

Pros

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Saints to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The projections expect Derek Carr to attempt 36.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-most among all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in football vs. the Patriots defense this year (75.0% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The Saints O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Derek Carr has thrown for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (185.0) this season than he did last season (237.0).
Derek Carr’s throwing efficiency has declined this season, compiling a measly 5.97 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.08 mark last season.
This year, the fierce Patriots defense has conceded a paltry 216.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-best in the NFL.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England’s LB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards