Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 275.5 (-133) after it opened @ 273.5 (-115).

Pros

The Raiders are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 39.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
Derek Carr’s passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 61.0%.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, giving up 7.06 yards-per-target: the 8th-least in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 9th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
296
Passing Yards