Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 275.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 275.5 (-133) after it opened @ 273.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Raiders are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 45.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to attempt 39.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
- Derek Carr’s passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 61.0%.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, giving up 7.06 yards-per-target: the 8th-least in the league.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 9th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
296
Passing Yards
296
Passing Yards
