Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 232.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 232.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 38.5 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
Cons
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Davis Mills has been among the least effective QBs in football this year, averaging a mere 6.24 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 22nd percentile.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the league vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (66.2%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Houston Texans O-line has given their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
