Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 196.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 196.5 (+100) after it opened @ 194.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Baker Mayfield has passed for a lot fewer yards per game (162.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
Baker Mayfield’s passing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.9% to 52.8%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards