Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Panthers vs. 49ers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 196.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 196.5 (+100) after it opened @ 194.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.2 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- Baker Mayfield has passed for a lot fewer yards per game (162.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
- Baker Mayfield’s passing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.9% to 52.8%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
229
Passing Yards
229
Passing Yards
