Week 5 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

It was another profitable week for the FTN moneyline underdog plays, with the Commanders scoring a comfortable 42-14 road win at Arizona at +185. That brings us to a challenging Week 5, with 11 games carrying a spread of four points or less. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 5 of the 2024 season.

Week 5 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Tampa Bay +1.5 at Atlanta

(+105, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Maybe it wasn’t Arthur Smith’s fault? 

Despite boasting one of the NFL’s best offensive lines per our preseason FTN rankings, the Atlanta ground game has failed to even approach the massive preseason expectations. The Falcons rank just 22nd in rushing yards per game (102.8) and have averaged just 86.3 yards per game in their three home contests. The Falcons are just 19th in pass offensive DVOA, with leading wide receiver Drake London just 36th with 200 total receiving yards through four games. 

The Falcons defense is a mediocre 17th in defensive DVOA, and Falcons rank dead-last with just four team sacks. This is not the profile of a team that should be a favorite over division-leading Tampa Bay (3-1). 

The Buccaneers passing attack will challenge the Falcons secondary with elite wideouts in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and two pass-catching running backs in Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has completed over 70% of his passes with eight touchdown passes and only two interceptions. Mayfield also has two rushing touchdowns on the season. 

The Buccaneers have won six of the last eight matchups with the Falcons, including three of the last four in Atlanta. Both teams are dealing with injuries, but I’ll take a Tampa Bay team that is not only 3-1 SU but 3-1 ATS this season. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 1.05 Units

New Orleans +5.5 at Kansas City

(+200, Caesars)

It’s hard to find a team that has been luckier than the Chiefs. Here’s a recap of their four wins this year:

• Survived by a toe against the Ravens in Week 1
• Needed a last-second field goal from Harrison Butker to beat the Bengals in Week 2
• Survived a shockingly missed pass interference call to beat the Falcons
• Beat a Chargers team playing without Derwin James and its two best OL in Week 5

Now, the Chiefs will have to adjust without wide receiver Rashee Rice, who joins Hollywood Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco on the sideline for this Monday night clash with the Saints. 

The Saints are one of the most balanced teams in football through four weeks. They are fourth best in total DVOA, including eighth in offense and third in defense. Running back Alvin Kamara is fourth in rushing yards and tied for NFL lead with five rushing touchdowns. The Saints passing attack has two explosive receivers in Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and their defense has 12 sacks and six interceptions. 

The Chiefs’ luck will eventually stop, and the injuries continue to mount. Let’s grab the underdog Saints to score the upset Monday at Arrowhead Stadium. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 2.00 Units