Week 5 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

It was a perfect 2-for-2 on our moneyline underdogs in Week 4, as both the Titans and Ravens came through with outright victories. Tampa Bay and Houston also found the winner circle, providing savvy bettors with four victories by moneyline underdogs in Week 4. 

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. As a result, we enter Week 4 just slightly below even at -0.75 units, despite a 4-6 record through four weeks. 

Each week I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two, or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 5 of the 2023 season.

Week 5 NFL Moneyline Underdog Picks

Houston Texans +1 at Atlanta Falcons

+105, Caesars

I don’t anticipate Houston being the underdog at kickoff Sunday. This line opened at Atlanta -2.5 and was quickly bet down to Atlanta -1. The Texans have continued to find perfect balance on both sides of the ball, despite dealing with a myriad of offensive line injuries. 

There is a massive discrepancy between the efficiency level of these two teams. Per DVOA at FTN Fantasy, the Texans rank 11th overall while the Falcons are just 27th. The difference is even greater in Special Teams DVOA, where Atlanta is 19 spots behind Houston. Teams are starting to realize the struggles of Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder and tempting the second-year quarterback to pass. Ridder is completing just 62.2% of his passes and has three interceptions with just three touchdown passes. 

The Falcons rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA, which is concerning against the uber-efficiency rookie C.J. Stroud. The Texans QB is the opposite of Ridder, protecting the football at a historic first-year rate. 

The Texans are the better team, and I don’t trust Ridder to protect the ball against an improving Houston defense. I’ll grab Houston on the moneyline, but don’t be surprised if they are the favorites later in the week. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.05 Units

Tennessee Titans +1.5 at Indianapolis colts

+102, DraftKings Sportsbook

We are going right back to Tennessee as a moneyline road underdog at Indianapolis. 

The Colts were dominated at home by the Rams, needing a miracle rally to tie the game after trailing 23-0. The Titans elite run defense will not allow Anthony Richardson to accumulate chunk yardage on the ground and will make him throw efficiently to move the ball. The Colts rookie signal-caller is connecting on just 56.9% of his passes and was just 11-of-25 against the Rams. 

Tennessee finally jump-started their rushing attack with Derrick Henry posting 122 rushing yards at 5.1 yards per carry. Per our FTN Splits Tool, Henry has feasted against the Colts, specifically in road matchups. 

Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel is 26-16-1 (61.9%) ATS as an underdog, and 24-13-1 (64.9%) as a road underdog of a touchdown or less (BetLabs). I still don’t believe in Richardson’s passing ability, and very much believe in Vrabel and the Titans rushing attack as slight road underdogs. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.02 Units