Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-110) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).

Pros

The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to total 20.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

Cons

The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards