WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Patriots
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has grinded out 57.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football among RBs (82nd percentile).
- Opposing teams have run for the 9th-most yards in football (127 per game) vs. the Cowboys defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Patriots are a massive 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots as the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The predictive model expects Rhamondre Stevenson to be a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack in this contest (40.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.5% in games he has played).
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling just 2.91 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.77 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
