Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-130/-102).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-102) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 41.1% run rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson has earned 42.6% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 47.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (76th percentile).
Rhamondre Stevenson has been among the leading RBs in the league at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 4.17 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 90th percentile.

Cons

The New England Patriots will be starting backup QB Brian Hoyer in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Patriots are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards