Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rashaad Penny from EV Insight

Rashaad PennyRushing Yards

Right now, Rashaad Penny’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to total 12.6 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
Rashaad Penny has grinded out 65.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (96th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (140 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions defensive ends rank as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Cons

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to be a less important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (51.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.7% in games he has played).
Rashaad Penny’s ground efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 4.20 yards-per-carry vs a 5.96 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards