Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Falcons vs. Browns
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 91.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 91.5 (-110) after it opened @ 86.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 47.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to notch 16.4 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- Nick Chubb has garnered 58.5% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Nick Chubb has grinded out 91.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (98th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
