Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Miles Sanders from EV Insight

Miles SandersRushing Yards

Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+102/-132).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+102) after it opened @ 57.5 (-112).

Pros

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.9% run rate.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The model projects Miles Sanders to notch 17.3 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs.
After taking on 50.6% of his team’s rush attempts last season, Miles Sanders has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, now sitting at 64.5%.
The Panthers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Panthers have run the 4th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.9 plays per game.
Miles Sanders’s rushing effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling a mere 3.16 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.84 figure last year.
The Vikings defense owns the 10th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering just 4.45 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards