Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Miles Sanders from EV Insight

Miles SandersRushing Yards

Right now, Miles Sanders’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-120) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).

Pros

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Miles Sanders to accumulate 18.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs.

Cons

The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have used motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards