Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (+115/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 64.5 (-145) after it opened @ 65.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to earn 19.5 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
- Leonard Fournette has been much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this season (83.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (66.0%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 35.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Leonard Fournette’s running effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling a mere 4.02 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.01 figure last season.
- Leonard Fournette has been among the bottom running backs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging just 2.47 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 19th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
