Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Khalil Herbert from EV Insight

Khalil HerbertRushing Yards

Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (-131) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to garner 20.9 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be much more involved in his offense’s run game this week (59.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.7% in games he has played).

Cons

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.

Projection

THE BLITZ
97
Rushing Yards