NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Joshua KelleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Chargers vs. Raiders
Right now, Joshua Kelley’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Chargers offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
- The model projects Joshua Kelley to total 15.8 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- The leading projections forecast Joshua Kelley to be a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack in this week’s game (42.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.3% in games he has played).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may slide.
- The Chargers O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
- Joshua Kelley’s running effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling a mere 3.74 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.54 figure last season.
- Joshua Kelley has been among the bottom running backs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.25 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
