Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joshua Kelley from EV Insight

Joshua KelleyRushing Yards

Right now, Joshua Kelley’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).

Pros

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Chargers offense to be the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
The model projects Joshua Kelley to total 15.8 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The leading projections forecast Joshua Kelley to be a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack in this week’s game (42.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (53.3% in games he has played).

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may slide.
The Chargers O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
Joshua Kelley’s running effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling a mere 3.74 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.54 figure last season.
Joshua Kelley has been among the bottom running backs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging a measly 2.25 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 24th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards