Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Josh Jacobs from EV Insight

Josh JacobsRushing Yards

Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-121/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-121) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 16.3 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has averaged 58.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (89th percentile).
Josh Jacobs’s ground effectiveness (4.84 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (81st percentile among running backs).
Josh Jacobs has been among the leading running backs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a terrific 3.81 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.
The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a less important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (71.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (84.0% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 104 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards