Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 95.5 (-130) after it opened @ 95.5 (-115).

Pros

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 44.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to accumulate 22.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Jonathan Taylor has been given 84.3% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jonathan Taylor’s running efficiency has diminished this year, notching a measly 4.72 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.94 rate last year.
Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 94 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 5th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
111
Rushing Yards