Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bills vs. Dolphins
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-129/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-129) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- James Cook has been much more involved in his team’s ground game this season (52.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.1%).
- James Cook’s running efficiency (6.00 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (93rd percentile among running backs).
- James Cook has been among the leading RBs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 3.80 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 88th percentile.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
- The Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 107 per game) vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
