Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Panthers vs. Cardinals
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-129) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 6th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.50 seconds per play.
- The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- THE BLITZ projects James Conner to garner 14.4 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- James Conner has garnered 48.3% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
- James Conner has averaged 50.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (80th percentile).
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- James Conner’s ground efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating just 3.21 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.19 mark last year.
- James Conner has been among the weakest RBs in the league at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.20 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 7th percentile.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Arizona Cardinals have utilized some form of misdirection on a lowly 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
