Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Jets vs. Chiefs
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 55.5 (-115) after it opened @ 54.5 (-118).
Pros
- The Chiefs are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect Isiah Pacheco to notch 12.3 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Out of all RBs, Isiah Pacheco ranks in the 83rd percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 50.8% of the workload in his offense’s run game.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Isiah Pacheco has generated 51.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league when it comes to running backs (76th percentile).
Cons
- The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets defense has produced the 8th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up just 3.70 yards-per-carry.
- The New York Jets defensive ends rank as the 7th-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
