WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Ravens vs. Bills
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Devin Singletary has received 47.7% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Devin Singletary’s ground effectiveness has declined this season, averaging just 3.59 yards-per-carry vs a 4.66 mark last season.
- Devin Singletary has been among the weakest RBs in the league at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.52 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.
- Opposing teams have run for the least yards in football (just 86 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards
41
Rushing Yards
