Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accrue 23.1 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has grinded out 94.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (99th percentile).

Cons

The Titans are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Derrick Henry has been a much smaller part of his offense’s run game this year (80.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (90.8%).
Derrick Henry’s rushing effectiveness has declined this year, totaling just 3.45 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.31 rate last year.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, allowing just 4.25 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
97
Rushing Yards