Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to total 16.9 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has earned 69.7% of his team’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.94 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends grade out as the 7th-worst group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Cons

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 35.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards