Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Cordarrelle Patterson from EV Insight

Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards

Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-111/-123).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-123) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Cordarrelle Patterson has been a more important option in his offense’s running game this season (59.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (45.4%).
Cordarrelle Patterson has generated 48.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (79th percentile).
Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing effectiveness has gotten better this season, notching 6.33 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.94 rate last season.

Cons

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 103 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards