Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Falcons vs. Browns
Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-111/-123).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-123) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Cordarrelle Patterson has been a more important option in his offense’s running game this season (59.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (45.4%).
- Cordarrelle Patterson has generated 48.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (79th percentile).
- Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing effectiveness has gotten better this season, notching 6.33 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.94 rate last season.
Cons
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 103 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
- The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
