Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-122/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-122) after it opened @ 53.5 (-105).

Pros

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to total 13.1 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler has been given 55.2% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Austin Ekeler’s running effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 2.55 yards-per-carry vs a 4.74 mark last season.
Austin Ekeler has been among the worst RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging just 2.41 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 17th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards