Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-122/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-122) after it opened @ 53.5 (-105).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 61.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to total 13.1 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among RBs.
- Austin Ekeler has been given 55.2% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Austin Ekeler’s running effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 2.55 yards-per-carry vs a 4.74 mark last season.
- Austin Ekeler has been among the worst RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging just 2.41 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 17th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
