Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).

Pros

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per play.
The projections expect Alvin Kamara to garner 12.5 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Among all RBs, Alvin Kamara ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts since the start of last season, making up 55.7% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
Alvin Kamara has picked up 58.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (83rd percentile).

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara’s running effectiveness (3.93 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (24th percentile among running backs).
Alvin Kamara has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.72 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 18th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards