Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Saints vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per play.
- The projections expect Alvin Kamara to garner 12.5 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
- Among all RBs, Alvin Kamara ranks in the 92nd percentile for rush attempts since the start of last season, making up 55.7% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
- Alvin Kamara has picked up 58.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (83rd percentile).
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Alvin Kamara’s running effectiveness (3.93 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (24th percentile among running backs).
- Alvin Kamara has been among the worst running backs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.72 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 18th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
