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Chris Meaney
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Lions
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).
Pros
- Aaron Jones has been given 49.2% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among running backs.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- Aaron Jones has averaged 63.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (90th percentile).
- Aaron Jones’s running efficiency (5.12 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (95th percentile among running backs).
- The Lions defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, conceding 5.02 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The projections expect the Packers as the 10th-least run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 37.3% run rate.
- Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Detroit’s collection of safeties has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
