Week 4 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).

Pros

Aaron Jones has been given 49.2% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Aaron Jones has averaged 63.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (90th percentile).
Aaron Jones’s running efficiency (5.12 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (95th percentile among running backs).
The Lions defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, conceding 5.02 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The projections expect the Packers as the 10th-least run-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 37.3% run rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Detroit’s collection of safeties has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards